As reported by Seattle Times writer Scott Sistek fresh data indicate we are in for a warmer and drier than normal spring and summer in the Seattle / Tacoma area.
The warmer than normal forecast begins with the April-May-June 90 day forecast and continues through its August-September-October forecast, with a significant signal coming in for the July-August-September period being warmer than normal. And in what would be a significant change from past years, models suggest the April-May-June and May-June-July periods will be drier than normal.
To localize this for the Seattle/Western Washington area, NOAA recently has been translating forecast maps into exact percentages for individual cities. Here is the temperature anomaly for Seattle:
90 day period: | % Chance above normal | % Chance Normal | % Chance Below Normal |
Mar-Apr-May 2014 | 37% | 33% | 30% |
Apr-May-Jun 2014 | 42% | 33% | 25% |
May-Jun-Jul 2014 | 44% | 34% | 22% |
Jun-Jul-Aug 2014 | 45% | 33% | 22% |
Jul-Aug-Sep 2014 | 52% | 31% | 17% |
Aug-Sep-Oct 2014 | 39% | 32% | 29% |
Sep-Oct-Nov 2014 | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Oct-Nov-Dec 2014 | 33% | 34% | 33% |
The forecasters cite a blend of climate models for the increasing confidence in a toasty West, plus a 50/50 shot that current neutral conditions may trend into warming El Nino conditions by summertime. If that were to hold into autumn and winter, that would not bode well for winter fans next year.
If the forecasts are correct it would mean homeowners with air conditioning – or better yet high efficiency heat pumps, will once again sleep well while folks without suffer through sticky hot summer nights.
