CoolingHeatingNewest Summer Outlook For Seattle: Hot And Dry

As reported by Seattle Times writer Scott Sistek fresh data indicate we are in for a warmer and drier than normal spring and summer in the Seattle / Tacoma area.

The warmer than normal forecast begins with the April-May-June 90 day forecast and continues through its August-September-October forecast, with a significant signal coming in for the July-August-September period being warmer than normal. And in what would be a significant change from past years, models suggest the April-May-June and May-June-July periods will be drier than normal.

To localize this for the Seattle/Western Washington area, NOAA recently has been translating forecast maps into exact percentages for individual cities. Here is the temperature anomaly for Seattle:

90 day period:

% Chance above normal

% Chance Normal

% Chance Below Normal

Mar-Apr-May 2014

37%

             33%

30%

Apr-May-Jun 2014

42%

33%

25%

May-Jun-Jul 2014

44%

34%

22%

Jun-Jul-Aug 2014

45%

33%

22%

Jul-Aug-Sep 2014

52%

31%

17%

Aug-Sep-Oct 2014

39%

32%

29%

Sep-Oct-Nov 2014

34%

34%

32%

Oct-Nov-Dec 2014

33%

34%

33%

The forecasters cite a blend of climate models for the increasing confidence in a toasty West, plus a 50/50 shot that current neutral conditions may trend into warming El Nino conditions by summertime. If that were to hold into autumn and winter, that would not bode well for winter fans next year.

If the forecasts are correct it would mean homeowners with air conditioning – or better yet high efficiency heat pumps, will once again sleep well while folks without suffer through sticky hot summer nights.

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